The Man in the Street

I met a man in the street today. Actually, it was the manager of the block of units that I'm staying in and we met on the footpath just outside the entrance to the units. I was going out, he was coming in. Only a couple of minutes earlier I'd been reading Marc Morano's "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change" and so it was ironic that the manager asked me about how I coped with Monday's weather.

Monday in Brisbane was very, very hot. Normally I would have stayed indoors but on that particular day I needed to accompany my brother to hospital for an appointment with the oncologist who had supervised his course of radiotherapy. It was truly the hottest day I'd ever experienced in Brisbane and I lived in the city for the first twenty four years of my life.

So how hot was it on Monday, December 16th 2019? ABC News reported that:

Brisbane had been expected to hit 39 degrees Celsius, but the CBD hit 41.2 °C at 1:40pm on Monday, equalling the city's hottest December day on record originally set in 1981. 

So 41.2 °C is the hottest temperature Brisbane has ever recorded. Well, Wikipedia states that:

The city's highest recorded temperature was 43.2 °C (109.8 °F) on Australia Day 1940 at the Brisbane Regional Office.

This is an interesting discrepancy. What's going on here? The Wikipedia article quoted from earlier goes on to say that:

The highest temperature at the current station (is) 41.7 °C (107.1 °F) on 22 February 2004.

To make sense of these conflicting records , I was fortunate to come across this interesting site created by Jennifer Marohasy in which she writes:

There is intense interest in climate change as a cause, but perhaps not enough interest in the quality of the data underpinning all the rhetoric. If we really care about this issue of global warming then we will want to know exactly how much temperatures have really warmed over recent decades. So, we will need to know the equivalence of temperatures now measured using electronic probes with temperatures previously measured using mercury thermometers. 

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology measures temperatures from electronic probes that have not been calibrated relative to the mercury thermometers that were once used. Further, the Bureau makes adjustments to temperatures after they have been measured, recorded and archived in the creation of the new official temperature series, known as ACORN-SAT. These homogenised series are then used to calculate national and global averages. 

Mark Huxley Akin (Huck) has suggested that we just get on and start constructing regional climate indices based on real and unadjusted/unhomogenised temperature series. 

Specifically, he has suggested we use “a good sample of well-sited stations with long histories”, using the analogy of the Dow Jones Average. He writes: 

No one ever tries to establish an impossible-to-define ‘average stock price’— including many stocks of doubtful provenance — and nobody cares. These pre-selected indexes of certain representative stocks, that are then followed over a long time-span, tell investors what they really want to know: how the market moves over time, relative to itself. 

Figure 1: Thermohygrograph 

It is the case that for some Australian locations there are long consistent records through much of the twentieth century. For example, temperature data recorded at Brisbane (station number 40214) are currently publicly available from January 1887 to March 1986. This is one of the longest continuous high quality temperature records for anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere with measurements taken using the same mercury thermometer at the same place every day (although the Glaisher stand was replaced with a Stevenson screen in 1896). 

Problems begin, however, around the late 1980s, when there are site moves and equipment changes. In the case of Brisbane, in order to continue any index beyond 1986, it is going to be necessary to join different temperature series and yet there is no data to quantify the equivalence of the measurements from electronic probes, mercury thermometers and also thermohygrographs (see Figure 1) — that were also used at Brisbane.

This is interesting for two reasons. Firstly, the Bureau "makes adjustments to temperatures" so we are not really seeing the raw data. Secondly, temperatures began to be measured differently in the late 1980s. She goes on to report that:

Since 1996 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been transitioning away from the use of traditional mercury thermometers to electronic probes in automatic weather stations for the measurement of maximum temperatures. This is a major change in equipment — a major change in how temperatures are measured — yet when this change occurs the Bureau keeps the same station number and just continues to add to the previous record. 

This is in contravention of its own policies that clearly state that a new station number should be assigned, and that there should be at least three years (preferably five) of overlapping/parallel temperature recordings at the same location.

This parallel data exists for a limited number of stations, but the Bureau has so far not made the data accessible. Much of it is currently held by the Australian National Archive as manual recordings into observation books. The numbers need to be digitised so that we can see whether or not the measurements from the electronic probes are comparable to the measurements from the mercury thermometers.  

After much effort, I obtained parallel data for Mildura – as thousands of photographed records. Manual transcribing of some of the data has established that the current electronic probe at Mildura often records 0.4 degrees Celsius hotter — for the same weather. The first electronic probe at Mildura actually recorded cooler. So, the custom-built probes installed sequentially at Mildura have different time constants. It was only possible to establish this after the parallel data was provided to me, and I began an analysis of some of the manually transcribed data. 

We know that since 1996 the temperature record for the Brisbane airport (station number 040842) actually represents measurements from an electronic probe, not a mercury thermometer. We don’t know what the time constant is for this probe. We do know that there is parallel data available from 14 February 2000; that is temperature measurements taken from a mercury thermometer in the same shelter (Stevenson screen). 

We know that there have been four different probes used at the Brisbane airport site, as shown in Table 1. The Bureau has not published the time constants for these probes. Depending on the time-constant, a probe may be much more sensitive to temperature change than a mercury thermometer and thus record warmer temperatures for the same weather.

Again, there is much of interest here. The parallel data has not been digitised and is difficult to access. Such data would show how much the new temperature-measuring method differs from the old. In the case of Mildura's data, the new method is 0.4 °C hotter. Figure 1 shows a graph, taken from the same website, of the variation in Brisbane's mean maximum temperatures from 1887 to 1985:

Figure 1

Reading what she's written, it's apparent that temperature measuring is not as straightforward as we might think. The ways of measuring temperature change and the measurements, certainly nowadays, are homogenised and adjusted anyway. We've seen that the Bureau of Meteorology contravenes its own policies regarding keeping parallel data sets during temperature-measuring changeovers. In short, it's a bit of a mess and probably deliberately so.

Anyway, to get back to the man in the street. His comment to me about the heat was that he'd read of a scientific study that stated that by 2050 there would be no winters in Australia. Presumably, that would mean that the summers would be so hot we would have to abandon the continent or go underground as the inhabitants of Coober Pedy do. Clearly, the incessant media propaganda has worked on him. The day before I'd spoken to a woman who was a firm believer in climate alarmism and felt that Gaia was angry with humanity for our abuse of the planet. That got me thinking about how this Gaia myth came about but that's the subject of another post perhaps.

Vaccine Information Failure

An article titled "'Science isn’t enough': Queensland Health admits vaccine info 'failure' " appeared in the online version of The Brisbane Times dated Sunday, December 15th 2019. The article begins:

Queensland Health admits it has failed to do enough to encourage vaccinations as it calls for social media companies to do more to stop the spread of misinformation. Queensland is experiencing one of its worst years for measles cases in the last two decades, with 71 cases recorded by the first week of December. It's the third-worst year for measles since 1997, when a spike saw 267 people diagnosed with the dangerous virus. There were 72 cases in 2014. But Queensland’s experience pales in comparison to that seen recently in Samoa, where a major outbreak has infected nearly 5000 people and claimed 72 lives, 61 of those children under four years old.

Figure 1

In the current Queensland "epidemic", no one has died or suffered any long term consequences but the example of Samoa is invoked nonetheless to remind the readership of might happen if they become complacent. Thankfully Instagram has come to the rescue of anyone who might inadvertently stumble upon anti-vaccination material (see Figure 1).

As Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH) acting director of infectious diseases, Andrew Redmond, says:

... the idea there was a “debate” around vaccinations was entirely false.

As another spokesperson, Robert Hoge, the Executive Director of Queensland Health’s strategic communications branch, said in the article: "If you look at anything from obesity to climate change to vaccination the science isn’t enough. The science has to be accompanied by good and effective communication and storytelling."

Ironically, he's right about the "storytelling". For communication, one could substitute propaganda and it's the propaganda that is being lamented as being ineffective by these health administrators. The culprit of course is social media, lambasted recently by Sasha Baron Cohen in his ADL award acceptance speech. The mindless masses are being swayed by misinformation and disinformation in the debate over vaccinations.

However, as Andrew Redmond said, there is no debate. The science is settled. Why can't people just accept that and live up or line their children up for their vaccinations? Of course, this approach is entirely antithetical to the way science should operate. There should always be debate as well as proper studies regarding vaccine safety.

This is same approach that global warmists or global warming alarmists take against climate skeptics or climate deniers. There is no room for debate. The science is settled. Just accept the reality of anthropogenic global warming and get ready to make the necessary sacrifices. In both cases, science has become politicised and is no longer true science.

The article referred to in this post also carries a photo of a woman praying in front of a portrait of her child who she lost to measles in Samoa, earlier this month. To the Australian readership toward whom the story is directed, the implication is clear: get your child vaccinated or you could be doing the same.

The next stage in the propaganda war against rational debate on the subject of vaccinations or climate change is more and more interception and redirection of suspicious content toward approved sites. Inevitably, users who post this suspicious material will, if repeat offenders, have their accounts shut down and all of their content deleted. Thus chances of users of social media accessing alternative viewpoints regarding these subjects will continue to diminish.

ClimateGate

This photo (Figure 1) tickled my sense of humour when I came across it on this site.

Figure 1

Here is the text that accompanied the photo: 

U.S.—A fun new "Greta on the Shelf" doll will watch you every day and fly back to the UN each night to report your climate sins to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 

The doll is equipped with eye sensors programmed to detect activities that are harmful to the environment. 

"Greta sees you when you're sleeping, she knows when you drive your SUV to the store instead of taking public transportation," the manufacturer said. "She knows if you've been bad or carbon-neutral, so be carbon-neutral for goodness' sake!" 

One couple in Portland proudly displayed their new doll and lectured their children on the true meaning of Christmas: fighting climate change. "We're gonna play a fun game for the holidays this year -- try to be good little carbon-neutral children, or Greta will tell on you!" 

"How dare you!" the doll chanted as the kids of the household left the door open while the heater was on. "You have stolen my dreams and my childhood." The doll then blasted off toward UN headquarters using its jet engines to report on the naughty children, who will receive coal in their stocking. They will be snitched on again, however, if they burn the coal for warmth. 

Greta is programmed to detect activities including these:

• Leaving the light on when you exit a room
• Leaving the fridge open
• Driving an SUV
• Parents participating in illicit activities that may lead to the creation of more humans
• Using a plastic straw instead of sticking your face in a beverage and slurping
• Forgetting your reusable grocery bags at home
• Getting a cut-down Christmas tree
• Getting a carbon-heavy plastic Christmas tree
• Turning on any electric appliances
• Using the heater instead of rubbing two sticks together for warmth

Children have responded enthusiastically to the doll so far, saying things like, "Mommy, I'm scared," and "Make the bad girl go away."

I shared this image and associated text on Facebook so it will be interesting to see what sort of response I receive, if any. Of course, some people take her seriously and may well be offended. She has just been named Time Magazine's Person of the Year (Figure 2).

Figure 2

I was led to the image shown in Figure 1 by going to a website called CLIMATE DEPOT. It is run by or associated with a certain Marc Morano who boasts:

Study in Journal Nature tries to ‘blacklist’ skeptics – Ranks Climate Depot’s Morano as NUMBER ONE ‘climate contrarian’ in the media! (#1 out of 386 skeptics).

I came across him when we he was been interviewed by James Corbett on the latter's YouTube channel:

Marc Morano has written a book called "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change" and it looks like it should be well worth reading:

Staggering Exaggeration

Figure 1

The BBC it would seem knows no shame in pushing its pro-vaccination campaign. The graphic shown in Figure 1 was prominently displayed in a news article on its home page today, Friday 6th December 2019. A figure of 142,000 dead is bound to catch any reader's attention. Anticipating that there might be some skepticism regarding such an alarming figure, the article includes a How are numbers calculated section?

The technique is worth quoting:

Every single case of measles cannot be counted. In 2018, only 353,236 cases were officially recorded (out of the 7.8 million estimated). So scientists perform complex maths for each country. They take reported cases, the population size, deaths rates, the proportion of children vaccinated and more to eventually produce a global estimate. Dr Minal Patel, who performed the number-crunching, told the BBC: "We've had a general trajectory downwards for deaths, which is great. Everyone involved in vaccination programmes should be very proud. "But we've been stagnating in numbers of deaths for about the past seven years, and what's really concerning is from last year we've gone up, and it looks like we've gone backwards."

This verbiage can be boiled down to a simple "we made the numbers up". The article includes a video titled "Vaccine fears cost me my children" and another titled "It's a numbers game... if some people are not vaccinated, it can cause a big problem for us all". There are the inevitable quotes from experts working for our favourite Big-Pharma fronts like Gavi:

Dr Seth Berkley, chief executive of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, said: "It is a tragedy that the world is seeing a rapid increase in cases and deaths from a disease that is easily preventable with a vaccine.

The message is clear. If you are a parent living in a country with easy access to the Measles vaccine then it is irresponsible to not vaccinate your children against this killer disease. If you don't then the children can't go to school and child-care allowances are withheld until a certificate of compliance is produced. Down the track, your children may be taken from you and placed in foster care. Anything is possible as politicians respond to pressure from the Big Pharma and the Medical Mafia. As another "expert" says in the article:

Prof Larson said: "These numbers are staggering. Measles, the most contagious of all vaccine-preventable diseases, is the tip of the iceberg of other vaccine-preventable disease threats and should be a wake-up call."

Measles is indeed "the tip of the iceberg". It's not hard to imagine that adult booster vaccinations for Measles and other childhood diseases may be soon be mandatory. Flu vaccinations will be likewise mandatory if you want to enter your workplace or board an airplane. Once social credit scores are operative, those who can produce their certificates will earn merit points (the carrot) and, later, those who refuse to be vaccinated will attract demerit points (the stick).

What's astounding about this BBC article is that it's so blatantly propaganda. And it works. A colleague of mine from a school where I used to teach posted a photo of himself and his daughter on Instagram with the comment: "That's it. We're fighting back! K**** and I both got our flu shots!"

THE NEXT DAY

Samoa was mentioned in the earlier story and it's in the news again today. The arrest of a so-called anti-vaxxer represents an escalation in the measures that governments are willing to go to in order to vaccinate citizens:

Samoa arrests vaccination critic amid deadly measles crisis 

Edwin Tamasese was charged with incitement against a government order after he was detained on Thursday. The outbreak - which has killed at least 63 people, mostly young children, since October - is in part blamed on people spreading false information, claiming vaccinations are dangerous. Samoa declared a state of emergency, and made vaccinations compulsory. 

Mr Tamasese had spoken out against vaccines on Facebook, instead promoting using ineffective remedies such as papaya leaf extract to treat the deadly illness. Before his arrest, he had described the government's mass vaccination programme as "the greatest crime against our people", and falsely claimed vitamin C could cure the infected children.

As the Unicef representative to the Pacific Dr Sheldon Yett, told the BBC earlier this month: "people who are spreading lies and misinformation about vaccinations are killing children". This is likely to be the way forward, simply label anyway to questions a government's vaccination policies as a child killers and put them in jail.

So what has gone wrong in Samoa? This recent Forbes article sheds some light on the matter:

What’s happening on the island of Samoa is not fictional, though. It’s a real declared national crisis. Why is it happening? Could it be related to the fact that measles vaccination rates have been dropping precipitously in Samoa? According to World Health Organization (WHO) surveillance data, the percentage of infants in Samoa who received at least one dose of the measles vaccine fell from 90% in 2013 to just 31% in 2018. 

As Helen Petousis-Harris, PhD, a vaccinologist and senior lecturer at the University of Auckland, explained, the low vaccination rates have probably been due to mistrust in the Samoan heath system and vaccines, further fueled by anti-vaccination messages. For example, anti-vaccination messages have been claiming that the measles vaccine killed two infants last year in Samoa when the culprit was not the measles vaccine itself but Attracurium, a muscle relaxant that nurses accidentally added to the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, according to Barbara Dreaver reporting for One News Pacific. Hmm, what could possibly be causing the measles outbreak?

Of course, other things have gone wrong in Samoa. This report about countries with high obesity rates among its citizens includes the following about Samoa:

43.4 percent of Samoans were found to be obese in a CNN survey, while 9 out of 10 adults are deemed to be overweight. Poor diet and reduced levels of physical activity have become major public health concerns in Samoa, where residents have a genetic predisposition to developing type 2 diabetes. Stroke and heart disease is also increasing across the country, an epidemic which has been linked to an increase in cheap, nutritionally lacking Western food imports. The Guardian reports Samoans view locally sourced, fresh ingredients as somehow socially inferior, leading to a preference for calorific, sugary drinks and tinned, processed goods. 

Whatever is going on, it can't be denied that Samoa has turned into a battle of wills against those who are pro and anti vaccinations. The former have all the usual blunt instruments to employ in the battle: supportive media, health professionals, compliant politicians, the legal system, journalists. Let's quote from the Forbes article again that was written by a certain Bruce Y. Lee. Clearly the "Y" was inserted to differentiate himself from that other Bruce Lee. He describes himself as "a writer, journalist, professor, systems modeler, computational and digital health expert, avocado-eater, and entrepreneur, not always in that order". The following quote shows Bruce's deep grasp of the issues:

Numerous scientific studies have shown over and over and over again that measles vaccination is by far the most effective way of protecting against the measles. 

As the 19th century showed, measles will rip through communities and kill people if their immune systems have been weakened by poor diet and they live in unhealthy, overcrowded living conditions. Samoa is being held up as an example of what happens when you don't vaccinate but there's more going on here. However, there'll be no public debate about it and instead extreme measures will be taken to stifle any form of debate.